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Published on 09/23/1996 All articles from this issue

Dole falling 'far behind' in race for president, editor tells Forum

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By Clyde Noel / Town Crier Staff Writer

Philip J. Trounstine, political editor for the San Jose Mercury News, applied the perspective of one who has written about politics and government for more than 20 years to the Bill Clinton-Robert Dole race for the White House during a Sept. 17 Morning Forum of Los Altos lecture at the United Methodist Church.

In jest, Trounstine related the latest bad joke circulating among political pundits about the presidential election: "The presidential race is becoming a dead heat: Clinton will be in heat and Dole will be dead."

With scarcely six weeks to go until election day, Nov. 5, political strategists in both the Republican and Democratic campaigns are working overtime. There is frenetic activity continuing with national debates to win, and undecided voters to be influenced, but it may all be futile if you are Republican candidate Robert Dole.

"Last year, Clinton moved to the right, and Republicans tried to look like Democrats and Democrats look like Republicans, and this has made a change in the political perspective of many voters," Trounstine said. "Clinton has taken over the debate of family values from the Republicans, a deft move enormously popular with Democrats. Dole is so far behind that he spoke to the Christian right and shook hands with Pat Robertson and that's not a good sign."

The more closely Dole examines his predicament, the more hopeless he must feel, Trounstine theorized. A candidate's usual strategy is to focus attention on issues that put him in a better light than his opponent. In Dole's case, there are few of these issues. On education and family values, Medicare and the economy, and even on traditionally Republican strong points like crime, taxes and budget deficit, voters trust Clinton over Dole, according to Gallup and CNN/USA Today polls.

Translated into projected electoral college votes, President Clinton's lead looks devastating, Trounstine figured. Leading by 8 to 12 percent in the popular vote, a recent collection of the 50 state electoral votes (you need 270 to win the presidency) polls suggested that Clinton will receive 425 electoral votes to 110 for Dole.

"Facing numbers like these, Dole has few opportunities left and his only shot is the presidential debates," Trounstine said. "Perot will be excluded from the debates because he has no realistic chance to win the election, but I personally feel that Dole is so far behind I would like to see Dole have a clean shot against Clinton without having Perot in the debates."

In examining the California presidential election strategy, Trounstine said Dole intended to divide the state into small pockets that would establish local interest and then spread into other areas, but this has failed.

"Dole can't bring these pockets together because Clinton has been in the state 27 times since he was elected and he now works all the special pockets Dole established," Trounstine said. "Today, Dole is behind by more than 22 percent, according to the field poll, because Clinton has Los Angeles and San Francisco all wrapped up, and he is working on Dole's strengths. The Clinton team is a marvelously articulate campaign that knows exactly what to do."

Trounstine examined the two campaigns in depth and remarked that Dole is a genuine person who did fight for his country. He also described Dole as a man with enormous discipline. However, Trounstine added, his campaign is highly undisciplined.

Trounstine said Clinton, on the other hand, has no discipline and no sense of limitations of what he should and should not do, but his campaign is disciplined and highly motivated, and he listens to his advisors.

As for Hillary Clinton's role in the next administration, "We have seen the end of Hillary as a leading force and a policy leader," Trounstine figured. "In the future he will keep her under wraps in an advisory capacity. She is a lightening rod for criticism."