Special to the Town Crier
Dr. William Ratliff, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford, thinks that Fidel Castro likes the United States trade embargo against Cuba.
Addressing the Morning Forum of Los Altos on Feb. 2, Ratliff said Castro's entire career has been based on opposition to the United States, and the embargo provides a scapegoat and a symbol of U.S. oppression. "If you take away the embargo, you take away Castro's justification," Ratliff said.
Noting that most U.S. residents care very little about what happens in Cuba, while Cuban Americans care passionately, Ratliff said that they exercise disproportionate influence on U.S. policies toward Cuba. Ratliff said that 75 percent of Cuban Americans support the embargo, although only 37 percent believe it is effective, and that 70 percent want the United States to invade Cuba. The Defense Intelligence Agency prepared a report for Congress stating that Cuba is no threat to America, and the Cuban American lobby made them postpone release of the report for two and a half months for fear it would soften the U.S. attitude toward Cuba.
Saying that embargoes in general do not work, Ratliff called the Cuban embargo "snake oil diplomacy." Ratliff said that it does not promote democracy and human rights and is immoral because of its impact on innocent citizens. The fall of the Soviet Union resulted in a loss of one-fourth to one-third of the Cuban gross national product, Ratliff said. The Cuban economy consists of $400 million in tourism (most of which leaves Cuba for Spain and other countries which own the hotels), $500 million in sugar, and $800 million in remittances from expatriate Cubans to family members in Cuba, Ratliff said.
He noted that Cuba has become a society of haves, those with support from relatives abroad, and have-nots.
Dr. Ratliff said that he thinks Castro is an opportunist, rather than a communist, who chose to align with the former Soviet Union, the super power that shared his opposition to the United States. He said that while the majority of Cubans do not like Castro, they realize that they can't get rid of him. Any attempt to overthrow Castro would result in a "very, very nasty civil war and the U.S. would get sucked in," Ratliff said. Upon Castro's death, Ratliff predicted that Castro's brother Raoul will take over and will be more pragmatic than Fidel.
Asked about the status of the U.S. base at Guantanamo, Ratliff replied that as soon as there is a Cuban government we like, "we're out of there, just like the Philippine Islands."
The Morning Forum is a members-only lecture series held at the United Methodist Church of Los Altos. Membership is closed for this year. To get on a waiting list for membership, write to: Morning Forum, P.O. Box 274, Los Altos 94023-0274.